28.02.11_Monday

The wild swings were as expected on Budget day!

Reading the prices on the median line chart, it crossed the resistance at 5380 levels and made a dash towards the Orange median line, but came down as fast as it went up.

The trend is still down which will get negated only when it crosses the orange median line at 5450 levels with momentum.

Now what can we expect going forward?

The green line is the possible swingline up and the brown line is the possible swingline down.( these are lines drawn parallel to the previous up and down swings at the same angle)

Today the last hour bar is positive .Tomorrow it can open and try to test the immediate swing high ie 5477 levels.If the momentum fails to pick up to cross yesterdays high, then the price expected to fall down to 5255,5145,5030 levels - which are the junctions at schiff line,orange LMLH and the parallel sliding line support.Any of these supports can hold and we'll have to watch how price reacts at these points for reversal signs.

As per Andrews writings,trends reversals are noticeable after 5 pivots and from 5600 top we can count upto 4th pivot at 5477 made today.The 5th lower pivot can be the point where the downtrend halts.

Trade Plan for next day:

Sell nifty after it rises to resistance levels at 5400-5450 band.If it gaps down wait for a minor pullback / or hourly 20 ema to be tested for entering short position.Stoploss as per entry level.