30.09.2011_Friday

Price opened lower than yesterday's close,tested the previous high near to 5033 levels and then dropped down to close at 4940, close to our expected levels.As of now, the price is within supporting levels of a trendline channel shown in blue and the triggerline drawn from schiff median line starting pivot (50 % of previous swing.)
So the options of the swing move look 30:70 now for a move up / down.
My reasons for the possible move up are
Price moves indicate the tussle between bulls and bears for the past two-three days.The previous minor swing high has been crossed and the pullback was supported at his level.ie resistance becomes support.Today the low is still higher than yesterday's low.The prices seem to have completed a correction with an ABC pattern within a trendline channel.( though still today's low bar is not confirmed as the swing low.we'll wait to see monday's action)
IF the prices hold at this level, then the move can happen upward.But price has to be really strong as the climb beyond the resistance at 5033 is more than the down side support breakdown level at 4930.( 5033-4940=93 points against 4940-4930=10 points).The global cues are also so negative the negative outlook has more probability.
Price is exactly near the middle of the range of the past one month and it is going to be tough call for trade decision on Monday till the trend emerges.