28.02.11_Monday

The wild swings were as expected on Budget day!

Reading the prices on the median line chart, it crossed the resistance at 5380 levels and made a dash towards the Orange median line, but came down as fast as it went up.

The trend is still down which will get negated only when it crosses the orange median line at 5450 levels with momentum.

Now what can we expect going forward?

The green line is the possible swingline up and the brown line is the possible swingline down.( these are lines drawn parallel to the previous up and down swings at the same angle)

Today the last hour bar is positive .Tomorrow it can open and try to test the immediate swing high ie 5477 levels.If the momentum fails to pick up to cross yesterdays high, then the price expected to fall down to 5255,5145,5030 levels - which are the junctions at schiff line,orange LMLH and the parallel sliding line support.Any of these supports can hold and we'll have to watch how price reacts at these points for reversal signs.

As per Andrews writings,trends reversals are noticeable after 5 pivots and from 5600 top we can count upto 4th pivot at 5477 made today.The 5th lower pivot can be the point where the downtrend halts.

Trade Plan for next day:

Sell nifty after it rises to resistance levels at 5400-5450 band.If it gaps down wait for a minor pullback / or hourly 20 ema to be tested for entering short position.Stoploss as per entry level.

BankNifty_28.02.11

25.02.11_Friday

60 min chart- Nifty

Price touched 5230 - one of the target levels today.The range was very volatile with whipsaws.

Next what ? The price has reached a low at the schiff median line and closed up for the day.The negative trend still holds.Drawn parallel sliding lines-shown in magenta- which were tested atleast twice previously as support level and resistance level.Today's low also has come very close to the support level.

The parallel swings are equal in size and the next move if it breaks down will reach 5100-5070.Any pullback has resistance at 5380-5350.Next trades to be entered based on the price action at these levels.

24.02.11_Thursday

The market wanted to go down!!

Breakdown at 5-20 ema and 50 sma on 23.02.11 at 5470 .Today price opened and went below the previous swing low and the breakdown was confirmed.The fall was very fierce and has closed down below the first target / earlier gap at 5330 level,and closed at 5280 near 76.4 % R of prev swing.Downside targets of 5230 - 5190 are next levels to watch out for.

23.02.11_Wednesday

60 min chart

Price has slipped below the red LMLH of the schiff median lines drawn yesterday.Still inconclusive but the bias is towards the sell side now.Markets really confuse one during the corrections!

Have closed the Long position taken at 5540 levels at a loss and entered Nifty short position at 5470 March series.Price below 50 sma.

1st target is now at the gap at 5330 level(NS).

Stoploss for fresh shorts is at 5510-5530 levels(NS)

22.02.11_Tuesday

60 min Nifty chart 22.02.11

It was an inside range day -price not moving out of yesterdays high and low.

The indecision continues with the direction nifty can move.

Drawing a red schiff median line with past two days moves on 60 min chart, todays price has paused above the red LMLH at EOD.

The probability now is the move up continues if price moves above 5530 and move down can happen if price breaks 5410

Price is at junction of 5-20 ema and 50 sma .

Will follow the market on its move - breakout or breakdown levels.

21.02.11_Monday

60 min chart

Price was supported exactly at the schiff median line support.The price zoomed up as soon as it reached 5400 levels.Now closer to Orange median line the probabilities of Long and Short trades still exist.Will let the price action on tuesday confirm the trend.Price being higher than 50 sma , the Long option is stronger.Also a possible head and shoulder pattern is seen.Break of neckline is at 5600 levels which can add to the momentum.

If it gaps up, enter / add to long position.

If price goes below 5 ema / 20 ema then look out for crossover of 50 sma downwards to aim for the lower targets.
Daily Chart

Looking at the downsloping channel, the swing count is 4 swings only.Normal count is 3 / 5 / 7 swings which makes this major downswing incomplete.The 5th swing will be formed if it touches 5100 levels .Will the price touch the trendline?

21.02.11_Trade Chart

EOD Update 21.02.11

Price was supported at 50 sma and low made was at 5412.The fast rise at 2.00 pm was " a little too fast "!As was expecting the price to touch 5400-5380 levels , did not react till it went up closer to 20 ema.By then I could not fill in my 1st target for short position.So at 3.00 pm closed at breakeven only.

To relearn the lesson to place target order especially in counter trend trades for half the position.

Current scenario:Reached the orange ML.This can act as resistance again (or) price can break the resistance and zoom up.

Trade today :Closed short and as the price zoomed up thro the 5-20 ema and above 50 sma , entered LONG in march series at 5540.This is an early entry without confirmation of the trend probabilities , but have taken the risk as the reversal from low today was very swift. Expect a good upmove tommorrow if it gaps up.

Stoploss for long at reversal pivotis at 5412 is very huge.This parameter makes it a high risk entry level.Will close the position if negative at EOD.

Now, If price breaks 5412 then downward targets hold.If it zooms up 5580 higher targets of UML touch at 5800 levels.

Minifty trade chart -( 60 min )for 21.02.11

My targets for this week on trade entered on friday 18.02.11

18.02.11_Friday

60 min chart

The price met the resistance at Orange median line at 5550 levels as projected earlier.It has moved down past 20 ema also.Drawn a schiff median line for projecting support levels.For monday minor support at 5400 levels expected-this corresponds to 50 % R of prev swing + approx 50 sma levels.If minor pullback/ price retest of Orange ML to form a lower high happens on getting supported at 5400 , enter short positions again .Stoploss will be at high of testbar on Orange ML.

The probable supports further down are at 5230 - 5190 levels( schiff lower MLH and Orange Lower MLH.Support line projected from earlier low of 5170 levels gives us 5100- 5070 levels to look out for.

If price gets supported at 5190 levels it will be a double bottom for the upmove to commence again.

Daily Chart

After reaching low at 5185 levels, the upmove past one week has halted at 20 ema levels/ Red Median line.A higher low is to be formed for the positive uptrend to continue , so the pullback supports - Fib R levels to be closely watched out for.As per 60 min charts the support at 5400 levels should hold or else price can slide down to reach prev low and further down to 5100 levels.

Tracing a similar parallel downmove from today's resistance level at the Red Median line, Lower levels at the red Lower MLH + longterm trendline junction corresponds to 5100 levels.If price reaches there it will form a double bottom and positive action will continue the upmove.

11.02.11_Intraday trade

5 min chart of Intraday trade on 11.02.11 Friday

11.02.11_Friday

60 min chart - 11.02.11

The bounce came a day later ! The price touched intraday low levels at around 5170 and zoomed up to 5317 high at the Orange LML / Magenta ML as written on 9.02.11 post.

The path ahead could be the dash to 5400 levels if buying comes in from Monday, where it meets the Magenta UML parallel resistance.Can enter longs on zoom up and retest of Orange LML.Target 1 will be 5400 levels and further up at around 5550-5600 levels.

Any sideways movement next week, without reaching the Yellow UML parallel , then further downside towards 5100 levels will be expected.

10.0.11_Thursday

60 min chart 10.02.11

Daily chart _10.02.11

9.02.11_WEEKLY CHART

Weekly chart_Nifty

Weekly chart - pitchfork with equal range channels drawn.The support at second channel line is indicated at around 5170 levels and further down at 5100 levels at the trendline channel.

Bounce from here is highly probable.

9.02.11_Wednesday

60 min chart- 9.02.11

First hour,price touched 5254 at the magenta LML and made a swift move up.But the upmove did not sustain and steadily climbed down again .The next intraday low at 5229 also touched the Magenta LML to close at 5274 levels.The price moves within the magenta Pitchfork looks complete.A bounce back till Magenta ML / orange LML at about 5300-5320 is possible .The resistance at these levels - if strong will lead to lower prices again.If the resistance is broken then 5400-5425 levels can be targetted.

8.02.11_Tuesday

60 min chart 8.02.11

Price fell below yesterday's low and has crossed the Orange major Lower Median line parallel at EOD. If price is supported here then tommorrow,market should indicate with a reversal signal bar / price action should move up.

Probability 1:Touches 5288 levels which is close to 161.8 % of previous minor upswing in the morning hour and then moves up.This would be a positive sign.If not ?

Probability 2:Price moves downwards and can reach 5250 levels near to the Magenta pitchfork LML.Further down the targets are 5140 - 261.8 % R level, and then at 5100 at Yellow LML.

As indicators are oversold for the past few days, the bottom is difficult to be pinned down.Will watch out for the LML supports.

7.02.11_Monday

60 min chart 7.02.11

Drawn a majenta pitchfork with pivots as shown in chart from immediate swings.

Todays price moved within the range of 5439 -5378 and quite inconclusive on further direction.

Two possibilities -

1.If it breaks 4.02.11 low of 5370 further move down towards 5288 ( calculated from current swing high - ( 2 x range points between P0 and P1)

2.If there is a move up , resistance and selling pressure can come in 5470 / 5490 ie at magenta and yellow UML above.Price can move up only after closing above 5500 .

4.02.11_Friday

Price met the fib line resistance at the upper channel and changed direction.The move was unexpected as price movement till 5600-5650 levels was anticipated today.The fast fall closed below the median line EOD.Below it is close to the orange LML of the major pitchfork. at around 5350 levels below which 5300 , 5185 levels are projected.The picture looks grim for any reversal till the price crosses above the recent swing pivots.