Trading with Median lines is a system and a leading indicator suitable for Swing trading.I am following this strategy for Nifty and Bank Nifty with good results.Those interested to trade with Charts and Price action to analyse target price, support and resistance levels will find this strategy very interesting.

Feedback welcome!Happy trading...

Friday, December 31, 2010

Nifty moves on...

Nifty closed at 6134 with day high at 6145.Steady move up on expected lines / targets.
Daily Chart 31.12.10

60 min chart

I have marked the previous swing CD.Prices are moving steady within the Andrews pitchfork (thro DE from C ).The calculation of 2 times swing range CD from point E gives a target price of 6194 .This target is close to the confluence of the blue mini median line and the longterm median Line (orange).
At this major median Line resistance is expected.If we get a zoom thro bar then higher targets are probable.The possibility of reaching earlier highs looks very positive if it moves past 6200 levels.

Thursday, December 30, 2010

Nifty charging up..

Morning moves were within a range but last hour Nifty really charged up to reach 6100 levels.
Positive moves expected for the new series from tommorrow towards the higher targets.
Daily Chart 30.12.10

5 min chart 30.12.10

Studying the movement in 5 min chart , the prices are moving up wihin the ascending green pitchfork.The price reached very close to the median line at C and this point corresponds close to 1.382% fib levels of the previous swing AB.Fib levels work very well with median lines to project / confirm target levels.

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Nifty crosses the first hurdle

Nifty Daily chart 29.12.10
The price successfully crossed the hurdle at 6045 .The steady move upwards since morning session right through the day indicates positive mood coming in .
The green bar moved right into the blue PF and the LMLH has supported well for the past few days.

60 min chart

Studying the slope angle of the previous upswings from the last major low of 5721 , it can be noted the price moves are so much in the same angle as the previous swing angles!
Projecting a similar swing, the confluence with the UMLH gives a target of 6170- 6180 levels.
Outlook for tommorrow
A very positive move up, maybe even a gap up is expected.Upper targets are 6100 / 6140 / 6170 / 6200 over the next two days.
Stoploss for long positions will be at 5975 .

Monday, December 27, 2010

Nifty still clueless...

Daily Chart 27.12.10
Nifty made a higher high today but closed below yesterday's close.The direction of Nifty is still without much clues and the plan will be to be prepared for whichever direction it moves.
Looking at the daily chart, Price has held on to the LMLH , within the lower channel.A break of this line can lead to lower prices in a sideways range for the next few days.Low of friday at 5940 levels should be a good support for any down moves.
15 min chartLooking at the 15 min chart, Blue pitchfork with pivots at C ,D,E was drawn to analyse the price movement.Todays high did not touch the ML of this blue PF and a down swing towards LMLH till close of the day.The price has touched and crossed the LMLH.
Projected the WL1 and WL2 ( Reaction lines ) for targets for the down move.
Projected the Orange PF with pivots D,E,F ( Today's high) to chart the current price movement.Targets of 5970-5960,5940 ( earlier low),5908 are projected from confluence of PF and Warning Lines.
Outook for 28.12.2010:

Above todays high 6045 - Positive moves expected , with strong close Long position can be taken.
Resistance at 6030 and breakout below 5980 will lead to lower targets projected in 15 min chart ie 5960 / 5940/5908.
Till 5850 levels the moves can be categorised as corrective and below 5850 the trend becomes negative again.

Friday, December 24, 2010

Nifty inching up....

Todays move by nifty was a good rise from the low made in the morning.It's a typical Buy day with the lower low than yesterday made in the morning session and closing higher than yesterday.The probability of a good gap opening on Monday is very high.
60 min chart

The prices got supported at the Lower Median line Parallel (LMLH ) . The price action looks set to go upwards till it is within this ascending green pitchfork .Trend can reverse when this trendline is broken.
Higher targets are at 6037 / 6100 / 6140 / 6160 levels.

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Nifty yet to decide its direction!

The sharp movement late afternoon yesterday gave an indication that sharp moves may be expected today but the market proved otherwise today.The small range in which it traded was a good lesson in patience, which is the trait that traders are supposed to master!

As the expected down move till 5930 levels did not materialise , I closed my short position as EOD the symmetrical triangle pattern made me doubtful of the direction of the move.Preferred to wait out and join the move once nifty decides whichever way!
Outlook for tommorrow:
The price can move towards 5950-5930 levels , find support and move upwards.This is the positive bias.And it should be a very sharp move through the main ML ( daily chart) for the upmove to gather momentum and race up.
Negative Bias will be a breakdown of 5930 levels .Supports further down are at 5865 / 5780 levels.
Will wait on price moves tommorrow for further action.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Nifty at Crossroad...

Nifty at Crossroads...

Daily chart 22.11.10

The pivots are marked on the daily chart .P0 is the anchor and P1-P2 is the swing line through which the first major descending pitchfork is drawn.Subsequent pitchforks are also show with pivots P3,P4,P5 .The median rules specifically
- the prices will reverse to meet the median line 80% of time is illustrated very well in this chart.
- Prices get supported at Lower Median line Parallel(LMLH) and resisted at Upper median line parallel( UMLH) is also seen.
All pivots are still within this major red descending pitchfork in the short term.
Today's price meets the UMLH , and this could be a probable pivot P6.Confirmation of this level as a pivot would be a lower close for the next two days .Supports probable at 5960 - 5930 levels.After support the prices move upwards of the red UMLH with strong close the trend upwards can continue for higher targets.

60 Min chart

The price today broke down from the mini median line pitchfork drawn within the current swing.Supports expected at the ascending green pitchfork drawn on 60 min chart at 5950 - 5930 levels.

15 min chart
Connected todays high and the previous swing high with a trendline.The parallel to this trendline drawn from previous low and red pitchfork confluence gives a target of 5930 for this downmove.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Nifty at Median line resistance

Monday's action must have been a rude shock to traders due to the sudden down spike in the morning.My long posittions were closed at stop loss levels near the lows of the day by just a few points!!And was amazed at the reversal above 5840 levels.As was not accessible could not enter again at lower levels so kept myself out of this swing.
15 min chart
60 min chart
Was looking out for the resistance level to short which happened today.Though the upper levels expected were above at 5967 / 6000 levels , following observation made me enter the short trade:
1.Closed lower at first target of 5930 - 5950 below 50 sma.
2.The swing has met the Schiff median line and reversed .
3.Price not reaching median line ( in blue) and reversing today gives a projection of lower targets equal to previous swing.
4.Stoch indicator has given sell signal in 60 min chart which I follow.
Targets for this swing - 5780 -5760 levels and further down to 5720 ( prev swing low ) 5605 ( equal to prev down swing from 6068 -5721).
EW outlook: I don't track the waves long or medium term with EW rules but study the wave patterns within the swings only - 6069 - 5721 is an impulsive wave , 5721 to 5954 - abc reaction wave , next wave could be an impulsive wave.

Daily Chart 15.12.10

What if?
If todays action was just a reaction wave and swing continues its upward move by crossing 5950 levels then the original target of 6100 levels should hold.

Friday, December 10, 2010

Nifty entered reversal zone..

Good strong move for a positive close on Friday .However Monday's followup action is critical for the momentum to continue..
Resistances expected at 5930 -5950 where some consolidation can happen.Strong moves above 5950 will push prices to next level of 6110 marked in daily chart.Time taken for consolidation near 5950 will give clues about breakout or breakdown towards earlier lows.
15 min chart 10.12.10
Daily Chart 10.12.10

Long positions taken today at breakout of 50 sma in 15 min chart. Target 1 @ 5930 -5950 levels.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Nifty Closer to short term Support....

As noted yesterday, "c" wave reached 5890 level at the red median line.Next target is 5840 levels which should be reached tommorrow and expect reversal at this point of the short term correction.Divergence in Rsi is seen in 15 min charts which is positive for the next upmove.

Two scenarios for tommorrow:
1. First half of the day, price moves downwards , touch 5860 levels / 5840 levels and make a "V" turn.This will a very positive sign for upmove to commence.
2.Morning the price can move sideways / bounces up mildly, reaches upto 5950 resistance levels and then move downward.If the close is below 5850 / 5830 levels EOD then will wait for another day to decide to go long .Downtrend / Uptrend confirmation will emerge on Fridays Action.

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Nifty seeking support

The fall continued today in the first half of the day and recovering towards close. In 15 min chart observed it was close to 5947 levels projected yesterday with the intraday blue pitchfork .However this fall to be viewed as part of the abc correction wave. Assuming" a" wave from 6069 to 5947 , "b" wave from 5947 to 5990 approx 38.2 % R , tomorrow a fall till 5890 /5871 ( equal count of prev wave / 1.23% ) expected.Will wait to see how the scene unfolds...
Currently targets towards the median line supports is shown in 15 min / 60 min charts below

Daily chart with possible supports and upmove projections shown.Negative moves will be below 5850.

Monday, December 6, 2010

Nifty resisted at 6070 levels

Though the mood was positive on the uptrend continuing , the sideway consolidation for 2 days did not result in upward momentum. 6075 levels at the upward green median line noted on thursday's EOD analysis was touched today.Stoch indicator was at oversold levels , so to ascertain probable direction the blue pitch fork was drawn during trading hours in the 15 min chart .The prices slowly moved sidewards and came down towards todays blue median line and crossed it forcefully . The target expected down is at 5947 calculation is 2 ATR of pivots 6025-5964.As the previous wave is a 5 wave structure this can be corrective 3 wave ending at 5890.
More levels are projected in 60 min chart for downside targets.The levels are marked at junctions of median lines with slope lines of probable waves.


Expecting support at 5890 - 5870 levels for next upmove .If prices move below 5850 levels then scenario will become negative .

Thursday, December 2, 2010

NIFTY consolidating at Upper Median line Parallel

15 min chart / 60 min chart
As expected the price hovered around the Blue Upper median line in a range after gapping up.
If price pullbacks to 5950 will add a position or else hold the current positions till it reaches 6075 / 6090 / 6100 levels.

Daily chart

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Nifty gearing up..

60 min chart

It was a dream move today!!Monday the price was close to the Blue median line.Expected a sideways movement around that line.Tuesday morning there was a good drop and hovered around the long term Lower median line parallel support.The hour bar breaking out thro the blue median line was so strong it indicated of great moves to follow.Added a long position at 5890 NF levels to the earlier position taken at 5780 levels.
On wednesday the path which nifty took was awesome.Exactly on the line i had charted :-)).And it has touched the Downsloping median line .What next?Consolidation and then further upmove towards 6075 levels .
15 min chart

The violet pitchfork was drawn on tuesday to analyse the S / R.The price did stop at the violet median line and zoomed thro the UML /Blue ML and retested the median line at close.Was very positive about the price move.Today the orange pitchfork was drawn and prices stayed above the median line rising steadily touched my target of 5935 / 5960 and then ++....The price has touched the Larger downsloping median line and closed above it.However expect some consolidation or retest of these levels even if there is a strong move tommorrow.

Daily Chart

A beautiful green candlebar crossing the median line !!Stoch reading turned up.Looking out for a very good upmove next few days..

Monday, November 29, 2010

Nifty in short term pullback...

Nifty expecting it to pullback till 5930 / 6090 levels in the short term.My analysis is based on
- Stoch readings at oversold level in daily chart.
-Today positive move after the down wave touching the Lower median line parallel
The equal ( of previous up move ) and opposite move ( from current down wave ) projected from fridays low leads to 5930 / 6090 levels.This is the positive outlook.The outlook will be negated if the price falls below 5700 levels piercing below the Lower median line parallel of both green and red pitchforks
60 min chart

The price is very close to the Blue median line and expecting to meet resistance at 5860 levels.
As stoch readings are climbing up expect the prices to move upwards to wards 5930 - 5960 levels.Above 5960 ( where the prices will cross the Green down sloping major Median Line , 6075 -6090 levels should be reached faster as above 5930 Short term trend will be positive.

15 min chart

Todays price move was not in the same angle as the previous upmove and was more of a steady step up step down step up movement.
Price move will be upwards if sideways movement persists around median line levels which can acts as support and propel it towards 5930 . Stoploss for Long positions will be at 5800 / 5775 levels .

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Nifty still going down...

Daily Chart

Nifty crossed the major red Lower median line from 4807 to close at 5800 level.Projecting a minor pitchfork support levels look much lower at 5700 /5650 if it falls at the same pace after minor pullbacks during intraday .Stoch readings are oversold but only higher prices will make it turn upwards.

Hourly Chart
The prices have reached the bottom of the minor red descending pitchfork and may touch 5750 levels tommorrow and a pullback may commence towards the mini red median line and upper median line if the price moves are fast.Current wave high of 5980 levels should be overcome for positive cues to start.The junction of the ascending green pitchfork and descending red pitchfork is around 5930 levels which can be a resistance.Thats about 130 points from today's close and quite a distance to cover in a day unless the bulls take over aggressively.

15 min chart
Price has touched the bottom of Lower Median line of green Pitchfork.
5850 / 5900/5930 are probable resistances for a pullback from todays low , if it doesnt gap down from todays close.

The next prices expected are below at 5700 levels if Nifty can't climb above 5865 / 5900 levels .The game is to wait and watch.

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Nifty ending the downmove

Nifty met the resistance at 5950 levels yesterday at the red ascending pitchfork.Today moving up further could not pass thro 5960 levels and came down further to reach the Lower median line pierced thro and closed at 5851.Expecting the price to halt at 5775 levels and REVERSE.
This is the confluence of longterm median line support and lower median line of the major pitchfork being followed during this downtrend.Looking out to close all shorts in the morning hours of 25.11.10.
24.11.10 15 min chart

60 min chart show divergences in stoch and prices which is indicating strength and possible end of downmove.

Daily chart The stoch readings are oversold and ready to turn up.


Confirmation of upward prices and strong moves tommorrow will turn the short term trend up.
Strong global moves in world markets at the time of this post is a positive sign.
Looking forward to a great day tommorrow :-)

Monday, November 22, 2010

Nifty pausing and seeking direction

The Nifty had a good pullback from 5900 to 6000 levels today. 6000 levels is the price where it touched the green median line which can be a probable resistance point. If it does not pierce thro tommorrow in the first one hour, expecting up down movement around these levels for some time.
60 min chart
15 min chart:Showing the descending magenta pitchfork and the breakout at 5875 levels.
15 min chart: With median lines showing probabilities of movement of nifty after breakout today.
If it closes above 6040-6050 levels tommorrow then target of 6155 / 6215 expected.

If unable to break above 6000 levels it can down below to 5960 then 5930 levels expected.
5930 should hold for further upmove to unfold.If at 5930 nifty goes up , probable head and shoulder pattern with breakout at 6020 level can be a possibility.

Below 5930 , the downward journey can resume for levels of 5870 / 5750 where the correction from 6325 levels should be put on hold.

Friday, November 19, 2010

Nifty falling down further...

The day was quite choppy one as the prices moved up and down during the mid morning session..When prices moved upwards after reaching 5930 levels ( without going down to 5900 as expected) , it was a feeling of apprehension that shorts not closed earlier at lower levels during the day were still open and whether they would turn out to be losing trade.But holding on to the belief in the system, that till 6025 levels were cleared ,i stayed put....After 2 hrs from 12.30 - 2.30 prices hovered above the pitchfork line and looked like it was going to break out above....
And what a surprise! prices fell thro so fast in the last hour it zoomed thro my target levels...reconfirming my belief in the median line .
Two days of a great trade with 450 points in 4 lots.
60 min chart-19.11.10
15 min chart:The prices stayed below the 50 sma and was a tough resistance.I keep drawing the mini median lines to judge whether they are breaking out.The red pitchfork was drawn to observe the prices moving in the upward direction.But the failure at the lower median line finally gave way to the great fall for today.The levels reached were the two parallel warning lines drawn with the 50 % range of the previous wave of the Pitchfork.Probability is very high that it can reach the 3rd parallel line at 5800 levels which correspond to our targets from the 60 min / daily charts.

Outlook for next week:
Can reach 5800 levels and make a reversal.Will head upwards to 6000 / 6150 levels.The previous wave support and resistance levels will be looked out for entering positions.
Weekly trend is down so it will be sell on rises.So short term long trades after daily chart stoch indicator turns up.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Nifty is indecisive...

The choppy action today is not very convincing to me to confirm the end of the down move.

Daily chart :Todays price low reached the 50 % range between Median line and lower median line This level- 5907 was very close to the 5887 level expected.The swing low can be confirmed only after tomorrows price move.The STS indicator is still heading down and not reached oversold levels.Till then down trend holds.

60 min chart:
The price is still below the descending green pitchfork with resistance at 6025-6050 levels.
Drawing a blue minor pitchfork from previous wave pivot points,lot of up and down action near the median line is seen.
15 min chart:Prices are contained within the recent minor pitchfork descending down.The 50 sma / 100 sma are overlayed to verify trend .On prices moving above MA's , resistance and support levels 6150 and 6050 will have to be used to close short trade and initiate long trades on breakout above 6150 levels.

For 19.11.10 :Probability for reversal based on global cues will meet resistance at 6050 / 6150 levels.Will have to watch the action around these points.Will hold shorts till 6150 levels and go long above that range.