31.03.2011_Thursday

30 min chart

Price has reached the ML at the range expected between 5830-5860 with high of day at 5872.The afternoon session was volatile on settlement day and EOD it recovered from day's low which went below yesterday's close.The close is positive on EOD basis but the high of today met a lot of resistance levels and the tug of war was expected.Closing below 5780 will confirm the correction to the recent rally.

The parallel swing line drawn from todays high to the Lower median line parallel indicates the support at 5600 levels.This is also the 50 % retracement of current rise.Holding 5600 we should move upwards to higher targets.

Stoch readings have moved down and indicates the correction in prices has set in.

Strategy is to look for pullbacks to short with strict stoploss.

29.03.11_Tuesday

28.03.11_Monday

30 min chart

Median lines from immediate swings marked as P0-P1-P2 .The price rally moves beautifully across the ML and has reached the Upper Median line parallel.Expecting the test of the UML tommorrow( 29.03.11)On retest of the UML at 5740 range and falling down , can enter a short at 5740-5700 range with strict Stoploss at 5750 as this will be a counter trend trade.The fall expected is a pullback till it reaches a target of 5550-5525 at LMLH.Multiple supports are present in this range.Consolidation for further upmove will be expected.

Confirmation for entering short position

- Test and retest of UML at 5740 levels

- Stoch readings crossing below 80

-Price fall below 5650 which is the immediate minor low pivot .

Alternate View-Price can consolidate in a range between 5750-5650-5600 levels before commencing the next upmove to 5800 range.If the consolidating move extends for a few days then shorts to be closed.

Daily Chart

Trend has turned Positive with the price move above 5600 levels.Price looks to be heading towards the Magenta median line and the red UML parallel - 5750- 5720 range.

Stoch readings are reaching oversold levels.

To confirm entering a short for a short term trade, stoch reading should turn down from 80 levels.For this next few days should be range bound/ negative close days.Positive momentum last week with the rally should result in a few days of consolidation this week.Any pullbacks should be supported at 5600-5550 levels.Only below 5550 levels , will have to review about the trend.

24.03.2011_Thursday

30 min Nifty Chart

The price moved beyond the resistance levels and close to prev Swing high.Medain line targets are at 5550 - 5600 levels.Stoch is at oversold levels but not crossed down below 80.So trend is still going up.As price moves above 5535- the immediate Swing high,return of positive momentum is probable.Swing moving above 5600 will reach out to higher targets.Pullback levels to be watched out once price meets median line whether they can be a good point to enter longs again.

23.03.2011_Wednesday

30 min Nifty chart

Nifty made a good move today with a zoom bar cutting through the magenta UMLine.The resistance expected at 5440 levels was negated and price move above 50 sma firmly was a positive note.Most of the day the price was in a range at 5460-5475 levels and EOD closed higher at 5481.

Resistances above are at downtrendline from prev highs close at 5490 levels( 76.4% R level).As Stoch is at overbought level , expect a pullback when it meets the range of 5490-5535.

The Median line target for the up move is at prev Swing high of 5535.

DAILY CHART

The price move after testing the Yellow Lower median line has moved positively for the past two days.The low at 5350 levels can be assumed as the Pivot 4 of this set of swings.Major moves occur after 3,5,7 pivots and in this scenario the move after 3rd pivot was a zig zag and corrective waves and marking the end as 4th pivot .

Now what to expect?

Scenario 1 for Long trades:The price if it breaks out of the current channel on the upside , the upper level targets are 5681-5721 range.This corresponds to 50 % R of previous major swing and the confluence of Median line and schiff median lines of previous two swings.

Scenario 2:The price move continues to be range bound within the channel and drops below 5345 , which will be a major fall towards new lows.

22.03.11_Tuesday

30 min chart

Price moved around the median line , zoomed thro and retested the Magenta median line on 21.03.11.Todays higher open confirmed the retest and bounce was anticipated.The price met the pink schiff median line during the day resulting in a minor pullback.Last 30 min bar is positive.There is a confluence of resistance points closeby

- major orange schiff Median line with two support points tested at this line earlier which can become a resistance level.

-UMLH ( magenta of the current downsloping pitchfork

-50 % R of previous swing.

This resistance zone is at 5435- 5441.Maximum price move can be till 5463 as shown in 5 min chart.Only the price move with momentum above 5535 will give bulls hope.Till then the volatility with moves on either direction will be the case.

CMP: 5418

Resistance zone:5435-5441-5463

Trade plan:To sell at 5445 SL 5470 once it tests resistance levels and moves downwards.

5 min chart

17.03.11_Thursday

Nifty 30 min chart

Nifty moving within a triangular range for the past 2 weeks.

For the recent swings drawn the blue and orange median line sets.The prices are walking down the Orange Upper median line ( which is indicative of a possible change in trend direction )and is close to the support at Blue LMLH.

For intraday LONG - a buy at 5430-SL 5400 - target 1 at 5534 Blue Median line meeting point.

If price breaches 5400-5375 then wait through the fall , then a pullback to short the index for lower targets.

4.03.11_Friday

Price touched the green median line at the open and had a choppy downmove to close at yesterdays close level.price attempted to cross resistances at the intraday downsloping trendline drawn during the day but without any luck.

Quite a disappointing day as global cues on thursday was very good and expected the price to reach 5600+ levels.Todays price has put the expected rally on hold till it crosses 5600 levels.Downside 5525 / crossover of 20 ema is the stoploss level for longs.

My intraday trades were closed for a loss as I too succumbed to the gyrations of Nifty and went against my plans.

3.03.11_Thursday

60 min chart Nifty

Morning session the prices went down to touch the orange median line and immediately zoomed up so fast , it was difficult to enter the position planned.After the fast move. the prices came down to touch closer to the intra day low and could enter long at 5500 levels.Todays price moves was like a wide range consolidation with positive close.prices are above 5 & 20 EMAs and above 50 sma in the hourly chart which is a positive confirmation for the shortterm trend now.Daily price has also moved above 5 & 20 ema and the 50 sma is at 5660 .

Expect the targets to be at 5675 at the junction of median line and further up at 5700 - 5750 levels at the orange UMLH.

Trailing stoploss to be maintained to protect from volatility due to global news.

1.03.11_Tuesday

60 min chart Nifty

The price rally went thro the orange median line today indicating the breakout from Downsloping Median line.The down trend seems to have made the low with the confirmation when the price closes above 5600 + levels.

Daily Chart

The daily bar is what Tim Morge a leading proponent of Median line trading calls as a ZOOM Bar.This indicates the positive momentum built up and the trend change calls for reversal of trades to LONG.

Targets up area at 5670-5700 band at the Upper Median Line Parallel( UMLH)

Trade Plan for next day:

Enter Longs on any minor pullback to the Orange median line at around 5460-5480 during the trading day.