15.09.2011_Thursday

Hourly chart 15.09.2011

Well...Nifty dances always differently than what we anticipate.

Instead of the fall towards 4750, past two days price action with the volatile rallies and fall, difficult to take a call and sit tight. Getting into trades with stoploss getting hit both ways will only be the result of volatile movements.


However, the median lines has given an outline for the direction.As price did not breach 4911 low, the consolidation and the rise in the upsloping blue channel indicates the short term upmove till 5100-5150 levels as expected earlier.Beyond 5150 - above 5175 then further upmove should unfold, otherwise the great fall till 4700 should materialise.Watching out 5100-5150 band for the resistance.

13.09.2011_Tuesday

Hourly chart update

12.09.2011_Monday

Daily Chart
Last weeks price action - Made a low earlier in the week and zoomed above median line and has closed near the median line at 5059 levels.
For a long term upmove the retest of low of 4720 is expected.So next week the price can attempt to go down till 4850 - 4800 levels.
Trade Outlook : Sell at 5120-5150 levels for targets 4850 levels and lower
.So beginning of week expect the price to move up to retest the swing high .
Stoploss for sell will be at 5160.
SAR - 5175 for targets 5400 levels.

Hourly chart projections


Charting the hourly with the median lines , with the momentum of the last days move , price can attempt testing 5000 levels , bounce back to 5100 - 5150 levels and then fall down further towards 4850.If it breaksout of 5175 after touching 5000 then upmove can be expected upto 5400 levels.
Trade Plan:
1.If price reaches 5100-5150 levels on Monday / Tuesday then,

1.a.Sell sept futures at 5120-5150 levels + Sell PE 5200 at 5120 levels - SL 5160.
Target 4850 ...Stoploss 5160. SAR 5175
When in profit by 50 points close PE 5200 and sell PE 5000.

2.If price reaches 5000 levels on Monday / Tuesday then,

2.a.Buy Sept futures at 5000 levels + Sell 4900 CE at 5000 levels - SL 4950
Target 5100-5150..Stoploss 4950. SAR 4940
When in profit by 50 points close CE 4900 and sell CE 5200.

Maximum points for stoploss to be 25 points per combination.

2.09.2011_Friday

Weekly chart
Price touched low of 4720 last week close to lower median line ( Schiff ) also a parallel to the trendline connecting highs of previous swing.
This week though short, has give a wide green bar , retracing previous swing.it has touched the downsloping median line.
Two probabilities if bullish
1.The price can zoom through the median line next few weeks to attempt testing of the upper median line till around 5500 levels.
2.Price can retrace till 4850 levels and then continue upward journey .Upper side targets will be at approx 5200 -5400 levels.
If bearish
3.the price breaks down through 4720 - swing low, then lower levels targets can be 4500 - where it touched the Lower median line parallel of the larger APF .Further downside can be worked out as the the chart evolves.

Hourly chart


Trade Plan for next week

Futures + options Covered call/ put trades.This is the basic plan but entry prices will have to be finetuned as per premium of calls / puts.Stoploss for future will be 30 points and calls / puts closed.

1.Sell 2 lots Sept futures @ 5100 levels + Sell Sept PE 4900 , Sell Sept PE 4800 - Target 4850 levels .

2.Buy 2 lots Sept future @ 4850 levels + Sell Sept CE 5100- 1 lot , Sept CE 5200 - 1 lot - Target 5200-5350 levels .

3.If price breakdown , Sell 2 lots Sept futures below4720 levels , Sell Sept PE 4500 / 4400 1 lot @.

13.05.2011_Friday

30 min chart Update


30 min chart-projections for 16.05.2011

12.05.2011_Thursday

30 Min Chart
Price gapped down at open but steadily climbed up and moving in a range till 11 am.The iiip news triggered a spurt and hit the red median line.Was the perfect spot to enter a short with the minimum Stoploss.And price broke the 5540 support and fell towards 5470 levels closing at 5486.


Daily Chart


On the daily chart with the majoe Pitchforks drawn the daily bar tested 5593, 2 days back and moved down decisively today.The probable target zone 5300-5350 is marked in the chart where it should find a major support.

11.05.2011_Wednesday

30 min chart
Price did not drop below yesterdays low,instead moved in a range for most of the day and reached 5465 level at close.Price moved out of the red median line set drawn on yesterdays price bars , but has not moved beyond the major Red median line showing the stiff resistance at 5460-5600 levels.
What next?
To project the next move drawn the blue Andrews pitchfork and Majenta Schiff median line.The price has "walked along the Lower blue median line parallel indicating the sideways movement and lack of momentum.Wheras with the schiff median line it has met the Magenta Median line and the major Red median line.This is a probable turning point and price fall can start from this zone - + / - 20 points.
Moreover this will be a low risk point to enter a short with minimum stoploss.
Till price reaches 6230-6700 levels it will be sell on rises .
If price falls to reach 5470 - 5450 band where it should hold for price reversal with momentum.