Working on the SBI 60 min chart in the weekend .Last week I posted the chart and here's the followup chart and what I forsee may unfold...Before that, some may not be able to understand the chart with so many lines and wonder what the !! this is all about...But Median lines is a wonderful concept which does capture harmonic nature of the the markets swings .It will just need practise with drawing the median lines on charts and studying the interactions of the price bars with them.
I have been following Timothy Morge,( a trader who has been using median line concept extensively),his articles where he explains so lucidly how to analyse the charts and look for trades.The articles are priceless and will give you an insight on how this alternate method can be used for trading as against systems and tables computing numbers.(One can combine / integrate them into a method..it's upto each trader's choice...I too combine the median lines with Moving averages, Stoch indicators..More about it in the following posts..)
The trader should not allow his opinion to cloud his trades on one direction only.Both probabilities should always be looked into, and entry points to be defined with the minimum stoploss point.So here's the recent SBI chart below..
Last chart, the 1900 range was spotted as the breakdown point.The next day, it held on well and climbed up to reach well beyond our target at the Upper Median Line parallel-(UMLH) to reach higher and hitting the sloping magenta trendline of the two previous highs:-).Price gapped down further and hit a low( Point L) very close to the red median line.As on 23rd September it has retraced 61.8% of the downfall.(Point M)
Drawn a green Schiff median line( A median line set where the pivot where we start drawing the median line is shifted to 50 % R point of the previous swing )
Price has touched the Median Line and closed slightly lower than the close.This is also near the red UMLH.So , a point of resistance.How I look at this wave pattern is, the fall from high to Point L was a straight fall, an impulsive wave.The next wave has retraced it to reach 61.8 %.Assuming a 3 wave pattern to develop for the swing to be completed, one probability is the price to fall down is till Point N.But wait, at the green upsloping Pitchfork at the Point F there could be support - we have been earlier supported at this point (horizontal at Point L).So if support at F holds, the climb could move on to Point G and further up till it meets the Blue median Line at around 2000 levels.There it meets up with the resistance at the Blue and Green Line, Trendline of Highs and expect it to fall down till Point I,and then near to Point O.If Point O at the blue Lower Median line holds up then upmove can commence.
If Point F breaks then the target would be Point N, O and then Point P.
How did I arrive at point P?.
1.The breakdown of point F is a H & S breakdown and the height of the rise will be approx equal to the fall.
2.Parallel to the trendline drawn at highs drawn a magenta parallel trendline from the higher low ( where blue the median line starts).The intersection of this line with the bottom price gives the target zone where the price can fall down to and halt.If the point N holds well, then we would have an Inverted H & S pattern which would augur well for an upmove.
I hope I've not made it look very complicated, as I've just run through various possibilities for the price moves.Again Market is supreme and we have to take care of our capital with stoploss for every trade decision.